The Irrational Market

Thoughts of the day:

Quarterly earnings are bad, economic data is pointing to a bearish & recessionary environment. Why is our stock market keeps going up?

Up because things are not as bad as they are? Or is it our very nature to long the market, rather than short it.

The market should only go up when

  • Earnings are rising
  • Positive catalysts (internal & external)
  • Equity risk premia is declining
  • Sound macroeconomic fundamentals
  • Positive expectations (?)

I do not see any of the above at this juncture. Thus, how can the market go up?

The truth is what comes up, must come down but when….if you truly believe that the market is overvalued, wait till it pops!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s