Let’s be clear about this. At this point in human history, I DO NOT believe that there is a proven / credible method / reasoning / valuation / technical approach or whatever approach you may think of, in predicting what is the future value of Bitcoin (BTC). Based on prevailing sentiments / comments, the range of speculated future value of BTC appears to be really HUGE!!!!
Winklevoss twins say bitcoin will soar to $500,000 and surpass gold as a store of value https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bitcoin-price-soar-winklevoss-twins-surpass-gold-store-value-btc-cryptocurrency-2020-11-1029850101
Trading veteran Peter Brandt argues that Bitcoin price is targeting $50,000 https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/trading-veteran-peter-brandt-argues-that-bitcoin-price-is-targeting-50-000-202012012308
On other hand, bearish camp says that the Bitcoin is vulnerable to a steep decline with the first local barrier around $18,000. If this one is cleared, sell orders may skyrocket creating a ripple effect across the entire market. Losing $18,000 as support will likely see BTC plummet to $13,500 or even $10,000. https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/three-reasons-why-bitcoin-price-is-about-to-crash-202012041206
My Simple Unproven Mathematical Approach
Key assumption: BTC value is assumed to grow at a linear trend over time
If you agree with the above assumption, a simple regression can be used to derive the relationship between BTC value and time:
Based on this regression analysis, what will be the trajectory future value for BTC?
The above analysis is a simple mathematical approach in “predicting” the future value of BTC. This should not be relied upon and it is strictly for entertainment purpose only.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment / trading advice or endorsement. Please refer to the general disclaimer of this blog. If in doubt, please consult with your licensed financial planner / adviser.